Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162022 220917 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.50 131.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 32.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 9.9 14.8 16.8 21.3 24.9 30.7 32.3 44.5 F F F N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 54.0 49.0 22.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 50.0 49.3 25.5 4.6 -5.6 -16.8 -8.3 -35.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 20.0 31.0 69.0 64.0 73.0 66.0 50.0 U U N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 64.0 60.0 56.0 50.0 49.0 48.0 57.0 N N N U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 4.0 9.0 5.0 -2.0 -18.0 -69.0-119.0 N N U N N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 1.2% 1.1% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.0% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.00 WP162022 220917 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.50 131.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 121.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 9.9 14.8 16.8 21.3 24.9 30.7 32.3 44.5 U U N N N N N VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 64.0 60.0 56.0 50.0 49.0 48.0 57.0 N N N F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 4.0 9.0 5.0 -2.0 -18.0 -69.0-119.0 N N F N N VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 5.9% 3.0%