Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162022 220918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.10    130.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  29.4  31.9  32.9  56.0  75.7  91.4 109.8  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.7  38.0  42.2  46.5  16.8  -1.6 -24.8 -26.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  39.0  38.0  52.0  51.0  41.0  29.0  36.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  50.0  49.0  50.0  49.0  51.0  52.0  48.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -9.0 -19.0 -91.0-132.0   3.0  25.0-106.0  F  F VF VF VF  N VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.40

 WP162022 220918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.10    130.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.