Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162022 220919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.10    131.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.0  32.2  34.1  38.3  66.9  97.6 102.6 110.2  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         46.7  48.0  61.1  31.7  30.7  -4.4 -12.5 -14.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  48.0  65.0  25.0  52.0  66.0  37.0   9.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  42.0  41.0  39.0  36.0  43.0  44.0  39.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0 -24.0 -56.0 -45.0 -66.0 -34.0 -81.0-121.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.18

 WP162022 220919 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.10    131.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.