Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162022 220919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.10    134.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.3  46.7  48.0  69.4 110.0 117.1 117.1 117.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.8  25.4  40.7  48.2   1.5  -7.9  -7.9  -7.9  U VU  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  61.0  14.0  66.0 109.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  N  N  U  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  38.0  32.0  38.0  42.0  39.0  39.0  39.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]-124.0   2.0  22.0 -11.0 -15.0-109.0-109.0-109.0 VF  N VU  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.08

 WP162022 220919 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.10    134.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.