Rapid Intensification Guidance WP162022 220920 00UTC Storm Located at : 38.50 141.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.10 F TC SIZE [%] 139.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7 49.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s]-122.0-122.0-122.0-122.0-122.0-122.0-122.0-122.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.70 WP162022 220920 00UTC Storm Located at : 38.50 141.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.