Rapid Intensification Guidance WP172022 220921 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.40 138.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 36.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 22.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.20 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.3 15.6 17.7 18.8 33.2 37.0 53.6 72.2 F F F N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 35.0 35.0 27.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 132.3 99.3 29.0 51.2 21.8 F F F F N VU U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 21.0 25.0 4.0 -10.0 14.0 -12.0 22.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 62.0 60.0 61.0 54.0 46.0 45.0 45.0 N N N N U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 13.0 18.0 12.0 -22.0 -11.0 -7.0 -5.0 N U VU U VF F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.5% 5.3% 3.4% 25kt / 24h 6.7% 32.1% 19.4% 30kt / 24h 3.7% 15.8% 9.8% 35kt / 24h 1.7% 14.7% 8.2% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 14.7% 7.8% 45kt / 36h 3.1% 30.9% 17.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 12.9% 6.5% 55kt / 48h 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 70kt / 48h 2.8% 2.4% 2.6% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.58 WP172022 220921 18UTC Storm Located at : 25.40 138.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 95.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.3 15.6 17.7 18.8 33.2 37.0 53.6 72.2 U U N N F F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 62.0 60.0 61.0 54.0 46.0 45.0 45.0 N N N N F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 13.0 18.0 12.0 -22.0 -11.0 -7.0 -5.0 N F VF F VU U U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%