Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP172022 220923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.80    134.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.9  41.2  32.3  32.6  33.4  44.4  76.2  76.2  U VU  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.5  89.6  76.7  43.4  72.9  72.9  62.7  62.7  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  62.0  31.0  94.0 113.0  99.0  38.0  38.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  47.0  43.0  38.0  41.0  34.0  31.0  31.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0  -2.0   6.0  20.0  -2.0 -18.0   7.0   7.0  U  N  N VU  N VF  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.58

 WP172022 220923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.80    134.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.