Rapid Intensification Guidance WP172022 220923 18UTC Storm Located at : 32.90 137.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.00 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.7 21.7 29.8 39.3 41.1 45.3 58.6 69.9 N N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 24.0 27.0 22.0 36.0 36.0 33.0 33.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 119.4 119.4 119.4 119.4 127.9 127.9 123.6 123.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 40.0 39.0 -17.0 -16.0 -27.0 11.0 22.0 83.0 N N U U VU U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 37.0 34.0 33.0 33.0 35.0 45.0 50.0 61.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 4.0 11.0 0.0 15.0 N N N N N U N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.3% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.44 WP172022 220923 18UTC Storm Located at : 32.90 137.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.