Rapid Intensification Guidance WP172022 220924 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.30 138.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.10 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.9 29.6 36.2 34.5 40.8 41.1 61.6 74.8 N N U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 27.0 21.0 38.0 39.0 38.0 38.0 34.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 124.4 124.4 124.4 128.6 132.9 132.9 132.9 126.5 N N N F F F F N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 30.0 0.0 -22.0 -19.0 -10.0 19.0 32.0 93.0 N U VU U U U N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 34.0 34.0 33.0 35.0 41.0 51.0 54.0 60.0 VU VU VU VU VU U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 3.0 1.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 6.0 13.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.52 WP172022 220924 00UTC Storm Located at : 33.30 138.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.9 29.6 36.2 34.5 40.8 41.1 61.6 74.8 N N F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 34.0 34.0 33.0 35.0 41.0 51.0 54.0 60.0 VF VF VF VF VF F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 3.0 1.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 6.0 13.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.4% 0.0% 0.2%