Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182022 220922 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    134.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  26.6  21.9  22.4  17.7  12.7  10.7  11.7  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  104.0 105.0 105.0 107.0 114.0 116.0 113.0 117.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  31.0  26.0  37.0   9.0  17.0   2.0  26.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   5.0   5.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.0%       20.0%       13.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.6%        7.9%        5.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        6.1%        3.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        6.1%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        9.2%       33.0%       21.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.2%        6.1%
 55kt / 48h       40.2%       26.5%       33.3%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       20.3%       22.6%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       68.0%       65.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.48

 WP182022 220922 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.70    134.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.4  26.6  21.9  22.4  17.7  12.7  10.7  11.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   5.0   5.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%