Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182022 220922 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    134.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  20.8  21.0  23.7  14.3  16.5  14.7  15.8  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  106.0 108.0 110.0 112.0 116.0 109.0 112.0   0.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  46.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    20.0  42.0  50.0  44.0   4.0  33.0  -3.0   4.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  62.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   5.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.2%        7.8%        8.0%
 25kt / 24h       27.9%       45.7%       36.8%
 30kt / 24h       18.6%       25.0%       21.8%
 35kt / 24h        9.0%       23.5%       16.2%
 40kt / 24h        9.0%       23.5%       16.2%
 45kt / 36h       33.1%       61.7%       47.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       38.1%       19.1%
 55kt / 48h       50.1%       44.1%       47.1%
 70kt / 48h       24.9%       40.2%       32.5%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       58.5%       60.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.58

 WP182022 220922 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    134.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.6  20.8  21.0  23.7  14.3  16.5  14.7  15.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  63.0  62.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   5.0  -1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%