Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182022 220923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    131.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  19.5  18.5  20.2  21.2  22.9  22.7  29.1  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  111.0 116.0 113.0 114.0 115.0  80.0  48.0  90.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  F
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  89.4 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  19.0  46.0  55.0   4.0  20.0  24.0  69.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  61.0  63.0  68.0  71.0  73.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   4.0   6.0   8.0   6.0   1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.9%        4.9%        3.9%
 25kt / 24h       16.0%       33.1%       24.6%
 30kt / 24h       11.0%       16.8%       13.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%       14.8%        9.0%
 40kt / 24h        3.2%       14.8%        9.0%
 45kt / 36h       21.8%       32.2%       27.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.7%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h       40.9%       23.1%       32.0%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       10.5%       17.7%
 65kt / 72h       50.2%       17.8%       34.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 WP182022 220923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.00    131.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     86.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  19.5  18.5  20.2  21.2  22.9  22.7  29.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  61.0  63.0  68.0  71.0  73.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   4.0   6.0   8.0   6.0   1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%