Rapid Intensification Guidance WP182022 220923 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 129.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 57.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 49.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.20 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.9 22.6 18.3 20.1 25.2 21.6 26.4 36.0 N N F N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 116.0 117.0 118.0 113.0 86.0 68.0 87.0 74.0 F F F F N N N N Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 57.0 46.0 36.0 7.0 30.0 19.0 70.0 80.0 N N N U N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 64.0 68.0 67.0 69.0 74.0 76.0 77.0 N N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 -5.0 -11.0 N N N N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.2% 11.3% 10.8% 25kt / 24h 36.1% 54.4% 45.2% 30kt / 24h 23.5% 37.0% 30.2% 35kt / 24h 12.4% 34.8% 23.6% 40kt / 24h 9.4% 34.8% 22.1% 45kt / 36h 32.4% 49.6% 41.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 25.9% 13.0% 55kt / 48h 38.2% 25.2% 31.7% 70kt / 48h 24.7% 15.4% 20.1% 65kt / 72h 47.1% 30.7% 38.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.66 WP182022 220923 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.20 129.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.9 22.6 18.3 20.1 25.2 21.6 26.4 36.0 N N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 64.0 68.0 67.0 69.0 74.0 76.0 77.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 -5.0 -11.0 N N N N N N U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%