Rapid Intensification Guidance WP182022 220924 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.40 128.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 63.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 39.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 21.5 26.7 24.8 25.5 28.7 34.7 42.3 N N N N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 117.0 117.0 111.0 94.0 67.0 71.0 85.0 76.0 F F F F N N N N Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 114.3 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 50.0 34.0 26.0 16.0 2.0 52.0 86.0 80.0 N N U U U N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 74.0 73.0 77.0 82.0 N N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 3.0 6.0 2.0 4.0 0.0 -5.0 -5.0 N N N N N N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 12.1% 13.8% 13.0% 25kt / 24h 35.2% 49.7% 42.4% 30kt / 24h 23.3% 34.3% 28.8% 35kt / 24h 13.4% 33.0% 23.2% 40kt / 24h 8.9% 32.6% 20.7% 45kt / 36h 22.7% 35.2% 29.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 16.0% 8.0% 55kt / 48h 21.9% 16.6% 19.2% 70kt / 48h 11.9% 7.3% 9.6% 65kt / 72h 27.3% 13.8% 20.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.62 WP182022 220924 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.40 128.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.9 21.5 26.7 24.8 25.5 28.7 34.7 42.3 N N N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 68.0 68.0 68.0 74.0 73.0 77.0 82.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 3.0 6.0 2.0 4.0 0.0 -5.0 -5.0 N N N N N N U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%