Rapid Intensification Guidance WP182022 220924 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 126.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 60.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 28.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.8 28.2 28.2 31.5 26.3 34.2 36.0 55.2 N N N U N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 116.0 111.0 94.0 82.0 0.0 82.0 84.0 66.0 F F F N U N N N Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 60.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N U N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 51.0 34.0 20.0 24.0 21.0 75.0 56.0 82.0 N N U U U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 72.0 72.0 74.0 76.0 78.0 81.0 82.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 4.0 4.0 1.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 21.3% 18.5% 19.9% 25kt / 24h 41.1% 50.1% 45.6% 30kt / 24h 30.7% 34.5% 32.6% 35kt / 24h 19.8% 34.5% 27.1% 40kt / 24h 14.8% 34.3% 24.6% 45kt / 36h 14.2% 24.0% 19.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 9.8% 4.9% 55kt / 48h 11.3% 8.9% 10.1% 70kt / 48h 7.0% 4.6% 5.8% 65kt / 72h 8.2% 6.1% 7.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.60 WP182022 220924 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 126.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.8 28.2 28.2 31.5 26.3 34.2 36.0 55.2 N N N N N F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 72.0 72.0 74.0 76.0 78.0 81.0 82.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 4.0 4.0 1.0 4.0 0.0 1.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%