Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182022 220924 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    70.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  30.8  27.2  26.7  30.8  31.0  40.1  47.2  N  U  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   91.0  81.0  69.0  59.0  85.0  79.0  58.0  55.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  15.7  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  24.0  10.0  15.0  72.0  66.0  58.0  62.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  69.0  74.0  76.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   3.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       37.6%        8.4%       23.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 WP182022 220924 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.10    124.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    70.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  30.8  27.2  26.7  30.8  31.0  40.1  47.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  69.0  74.0  76.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  77.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   3.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%