Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182022 220925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    50.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     45.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  23.0  21.3  24.1  24.5  34.6  42.4  46.8  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   79.0  66.0  55.0  74.0  84.0  63.0  55.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         25.0  24.3   4.4  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  24.0  33.0  63.0  61.0  11.0  50.0  97.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  80.0  83.0  84.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   2.0   9.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       28.1%        0.0%       14.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 WP182022 220925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    123.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    50.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  23.0  21.3  24.1  24.5  34.6  42.4  46.8  N  N  N  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  73.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  80.0  83.0  84.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   2.0   9.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.5%        1.3%