Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182022 220925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  21.9  21.3  20.4  37.2  38.9  44.5  44.2  F  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   78.0  80.0  76.0  69.0  55.0  43.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0   7.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  92.0  81.0  42.0  80.0  90.0  68.0  53.0  N  F  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  78.0  79.0  79.0  85.0  84.0  84.0  85.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        0.2%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.46

 WP182022 220925 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  21.9  21.3  20.4  37.2  38.9  44.5  44.2  N  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  78.0  79.0  79.0  85.0  84.0  84.0  85.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   3.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.9%        0.9%