Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182022 220926 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    115.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  28.8  34.9  35.7  35.5  36.7  40.5  37.5  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  61.0  57.0  51.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  38.0  -8.6   2.4   5.9  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  12.0  35.0  45.0  72.0  87.0  54.0  44.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  79.0  79.0  81.0  84.0  86.0  87.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       33.5%       22.0%       27.8%
 25kt / 24h       31.5%       36.6%       34.1%
 30kt / 24h       25.6%       30.8%       28.2%
 35kt / 24h       25.6%       30.8%       28.2%
 40kt / 24h       11.8%       29.2%       20.5%
 45kt / 36h       14.8%        8.1%       11.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.10

 WP182022 220926 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    115.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  28.8  34.9  35.7  35.5  36.7  40.5  37.5  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  79.0  79.0  81.0  84.0  86.0  87.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%