Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182022 220927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    45.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     85.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.6  36.7  38.0  38.6  36.4  34.2  28.6  27.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   51.0  39.0   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  26.0  24.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  15.5 -26.8 -36.3   2.7  40.0  40.0  U  U VU VU VU VU  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    61.0  23.0  56.0 106.0 103.0  96.0  71.0  46.0  N  U  N  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  81.0  80.0  82.0  85.0  86.0  86.0  87.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       30.5%        5.5%       18.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.14

 WP182022 220927 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.50    112.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    45.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    106.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.6  36.7  38.0  38.6  36.4  34.2  28.6  27.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  81.0  80.0  82.0  85.0  86.0  86.0  87.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        6.4%        3.2%