Rapid Intensification Guidance WP182022 220927 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.60 111.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 93.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 88.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.1 39.4 38.6 38.4 30.4 31.4 27.4 25.5 U U U U N U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 49.0 32.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 40.0 40.0 1.0 -30.2 -30.2 -33.3 -46.6 -61.8 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 58.0 101.0 139.0 141.0 130.0 111.0 70.0 58.0 N F VF VF F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 79.0 82.0 84.0 87.0 87.0 87.0 84.0 F F F F VF VF VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -1.0 2.0 -3.0 -6.0 0.0 -6.0 -5.0 N N N N F N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 24.4% 3.3% 13.8% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.98 WP182022 220927 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.60 111.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.1 39.4 38.6 38.4 30.4 31.4 27.4 25.5 F F F F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 79.0 82.0 84.0 87.0 87.0 87.0 84.0 U U U U VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -1.0 2.0 -3.0 -6.0 0.0 -6.0 -5.0 N N N N U N U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 9.3% 4.6%