Rapid Intensification Guidance WP182022 220927 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 109.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 95.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 95.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 85.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.0 34.8 29.9 32.7 31.8 29.2 25.8 15.1 U U N U U N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 0.9 2.0 24.6 39.8 45.5 26.1 18.6 3.2 VU VU VU U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 120.0 97.0 88.0 87.0 74.0 74.0 64.0 52.0 F F F F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 85.0 85.0 88.0 89.0 89.0 86.0 82.0 F F F VF VF VF F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 1.0 -3.0 -7.0 -3.0 -6.0 -3.0 0.0 N N N F N F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.02 WP182022 220927 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 109.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 95.