Rapid Intensification Guidance WP182022 220928 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 107.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 77.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 59.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 111.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.4 32.3 34.8 34.1 29.7 19.6 21.8 21.8 N U U U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 13.8 32.2 49.4 60.5 42.7 42.7 51.2 51.2 VU VU U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 92.0 45.0 38.0 7.0 31.0 40.0 48.0 48.0 F N N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 84.0 85.0 86.0 88.0 89.0 86.0 86.0 F F F F VF VF F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 3.0 -5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -3.0 -3.0 N N F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.70 WP182022 220928 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 107.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.