Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182022 220928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    105.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -45.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.0  35.0  33.2  31.4  27.4  24.6  29.6  29.7  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  52.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         45.9  50.5  51.7  47.0  40.7  44.8  62.2 105.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  44.0  45.0  31.0  49.0  32.0  56.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  86.0  86.0  87.0  88.0  87.0  87.0  85.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  -8.0  -3.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0  -5.0  -2.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.34

 WP182022 220928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    105.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.