Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP182022 220928 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    104.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -45.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    142.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.3  36.2  30.6  30.4  25.3  26.1  26.9  20.1  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  43.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         69.3  65.9  67.0  59.7  65.9  53.3  61.7 108.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    78.0  82.0  81.0  67.0  84.0  55.0  86.0  91.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   86.0  87.0  86.0  87.0  87.0  83.0  79.0  75.0  F VF  F VF VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -4.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.36

 WP182022 220928 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    104.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.