Rapid Intensification Guidance WP192022 220925 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.40 145.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 74.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 59.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.2 19.8 23.3 23.9 28.2 34.7 51.8 64.0 F N N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 52.0 40.0 32.0 34.0 32.0 29.0 15.0 0.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 135.0 132.0 132.0 135.0 135.0 120.7 75.4 F F F F F F N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 99.0 70.0 62.0 83.0 159.0 101.0 71.0 124.0 F N N N VF F N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 65.0 61.0 60.0 62.0 65.0 63.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 15.0 31.0 40.0 22.0 8.0 -8.0 -65.0 -78.0 U VU VU VU U F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.7% 7.2% 5.0% 25kt / 24h 20.8% 45.3% 33.1% 30kt / 24h 7.9% 26.6% 17.2% 35kt / 24h 4.6% 26.1% 15.4% 40kt / 24h 0.9% 25.0% 13.0% 45kt / 36h 16.1% 56.2% 36.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 32.9% 16.5% 55kt / 48h 23.8% 28.2% 26.0% 70kt / 48h 11.3% 16.2% 13.7% 65kt / 72h 11.1% 11.8% 11.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.60 WP192022 220925 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.40 145.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.2 19.8 23.3 23.9 28.2 34.7 51.8 64.0 N N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 65.0 61.0 60.0 62.0 65.0 63.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 15.0 31.0 40.0 22.0 8.0 -8.0 -65.0 -78.0 F VF VF VF F U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.9% 0.0% 0.5%