Rapid Intensification Guidance WP192022 220926 00UTC Storm Located at : 23.00 143.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 46.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 130.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.6 20.6 18.3 20.7 26.9 38.9 48.6 77.7 F N F N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 37.0 30.0 35.0 37.0 29.0 20.0 14.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 135.0 127.3 134.3 135.0 135.0 132.0 108.5 55.9 F N F F F F N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 82.0 89.0 99.0 118.0 145.0 101.0 85.0 113.0 N F F F VF F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 64.0 62.0 64.0 65.0 62.0 56.0 58.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 25.0 8.0 9.0 20.0 27.0 2.0 -65.0 U VU U U VU VU N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 2.9% 1.9% 25kt / 24h 12.5% 32.4% 22.5% 30kt / 24h 4.0% 16.1% 10.1% 35kt / 24h 2.0% 14.7% 8.4% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 14.7% 7.6% 45kt / 36h 10.5% 37.7% 24.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 16.0% 8.0% 55kt / 48h 17.8% 18.5% 18.2% 70kt / 48h 8.2% 7.7% 7.9% 65kt / 72h 7.0% 2.8% 4.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.50 WP192022 220926 00UTC Storm Located at : 23.00 143.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 130.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.6 20.6 18.3 20.7 26.9 38.9 48.6 77.7 N N N N N F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 64.0 62.0 64.0 65.0 62.0 56.0 58.0 N N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 25.0 8.0 9.0 20.0 27.0 2.0 -65.0 F VF F F VF VF N VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%