Rapid Intensification Guidance WP192022 220926 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.90 142.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 33.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.4 18.9 23.6 30.7 43.7 55.3 67.9 92.4 F N N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 32.0 34.0 32.0 32.0 26.0 13.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 122.0 124.3 125.0 125.0 125.0 108.6 65.4 21.8 N N N N N N U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 78.0 72.0 113.0 107.0 128.0 100.0 130.0 202.0 N N F F F F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 63.0 62.0 65.0 64.0 64.0 67.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 1.0 3.0 6.0 31.0 37.0 -17.0 116.0 N N N N VU VU VF VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 7.2% 6.7% 6.9% 25kt / 24h 21.4% 35.1% 28.3% 30kt / 24h 11.8% 18.6% 15.2% 35kt / 24h 8.0% 18.6% 13.3% 40kt / 24h 3.0% 18.6% 10.8% 45kt / 36h 11.3% 24.2% 17.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 8.3% 4.2% 55kt / 48h 2.9% 4.4% 3.7% 70kt / 48h 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.48 WP192022 220926 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.90 142.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.4 18.9 23.6 30.7 43.7 55.3 67.9 92.4 N N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 63.0 62.0 65.0 64.0 64.0 67.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 1.0 3.0 6.0 31.0 37.0 -17.0 116.0 N N N N VF VF VU VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%