Rapid Intensification Guidance WP192022 220926 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.00 141.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 45.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.20 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.2 17.9 28.8 34.9 36.7 41.6 36.7 49.4 F F N U U VU U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 35.0 35.0 27.0 28.0 16.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 122.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 112.9 98.5 66.7 25.7 N N N N N N U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 91.0 106.0 115.0 108.0 95.0 67.0 67.0 109.0 F F F F F N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 60.0 64.0 65.0 66.0 62.0 62.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 6.0 6.0 9.0 21.0 33.0 28.0 70.0 N N N U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.3% 6.3% 5.3% 25kt / 24h 17.8% 32.2% 25.0% 30kt / 24h 7.5% 16.2% 11.9% 35kt / 24h 4.2% 16.2% 10.2% 40kt / 24h 1.6% 16.2% 8.9% 45kt / 36h 7.2% 20.6% 13.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 6.8% 3.4% 55kt / 48h 3.5% 4.7% 4.1% 70kt / 48h 1.2% 1.9% 1.5% 65kt / 72h 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.48 WP192022 220926 12UTC Storm Located at : 25.00 141.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.2 17.9 28.8 34.9 36.7 41.6 36.7 49.4 N N N F F VF F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 60.0 64.0 65.0 66.0 62.0 62.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 6.0 6.0 9.0 21.0 33.0 28.0 70.0 N N N F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%