Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192022 220926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80    141.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  34.3  40.1  35.4  48.6  53.0  88.0 102.2  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  29.0  29.0  26.0  20.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.3 125.0 125.0 125.0 117.3  61.7  20.1   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   109.0 103.0 123.0 126.0  98.0  89.0 183.0 193.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  66.0  67.0  65.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   7.0  12.0  11.0  28.0  21.0  -5.0-147.0  U  N  U  U VU VU  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        1.6%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        5.5%       11.7%        8.6%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        4.4%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        4.0%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.0%        2.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        5.0%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.50

 WP192022 220926 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80    141.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  34.3  40.1  35.4  48.6  53.0  88.0 102.2  N  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  66.0  67.0  65.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   7.0  12.0  11.0  28.0  21.0  -5.0-147.0  F  N  F  F VF VF  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%