Rapid Intensification Guidance WP192022 220927 06UTC Storm Located at : 28.70 141.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 29.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.20 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.5 36.5 37.2 42.0 36.3 62.4 90.6 64.1 U U U VU U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 21.0 19.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.0 114.3 109.6 98.6 56.7 10.1 -5.6 -7.6 N N N N U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 92.0 88.0 93.0 89.0 86.0 192.0 197.0 106.0 F F F F F VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 66.0 64.0 66.0 70.0 70.0 65.0 57.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 14.0 15.0 27.0 -20.0 -11.0 -67.0-137.0 N U U VU VF F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.4% 1.4% 1.9% 25kt / 24h 3.6% 6.1% 4.8% 30kt / 24h 1.4% 1.9% 1.6% 35kt / 24h 0.9% 1.9% 1.4% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 1.9% 1.2% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.24 WP192022 220927 06UTC Storm Located at : 28.70 141.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.5 36.5 37.2 42.0 36.3 62.4 90.6 64.1 F F F VF F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 66.0 64.0 66.0 70.0 70.0 65.0 57.0 N N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 14.0 15.0 27.0 -20.0 -11.0 -67.0-137.0 N F F VF VU U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 4.5% 0.3% 2.4%