Rapid Intensification Guidance WP192022 220927 12UTC Storm Located at : 29.80 142.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 40.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 9.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.70 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.1 33.4 40.5 37.7 46.3 77.9 81.5 37.7 U U U U VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 19.0 18.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 114.3 109.6 96.5 86.6 29.2 -3.0 -6.9 -7.9 N N N N VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 91.0 61.0 71.0 104.0 126.0 207.0 169.0 69.0 F N N F F VF VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 62.0 63.0 63.0 69.0 69.0 66.0 59.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 15.0 24.0 1.0 -71.0 14.0 -84.0 -83.0 U U VU N VF U VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 3.1% 2.0% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.96 WP192022 220927 12UTC Storm Located at : 29.80 142.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.1 33.4 40.5 37.7 46.3 77.9 81.5 37.7 F F F F VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 62.0 63.0 63.0 69.0 69.0 66.0 59.0 N N N N N N N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 14.0 15.0 24.0 1.0 -71.0 14.0 -84.0 -83.0 F F VF N VU F VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 2.0% 0.3% 1.2%