Rapid Intensification Guidance WP192022 220927 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.00 144.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 60.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 44.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.70 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.0 33.1 33.0 35.9 66.7 84.3 84.3 84.3 N U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 18.0 19.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 102.3 102.3 87.4 60.0 24.2 -6.6 -6.6 -6.6 N N N U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 98.0 102.0 104.0 109.0 168.0 153.0 153.0 153.0 F F F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 65.0 66.0 64.0 68.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 23.0 35.0 23.0 88.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.6% 2.8% 3.7% 25kt / 24h 5.3% 7.4% 6.4% 30kt / 24h 1.8% 2.8% 2.3% 35kt / 24h 1.2% 2.8% 2.0% 40kt / 24h 0.8% 2.8% 1.8% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.54 WP192022 220927 18UTC Storm Located at : 31.00 144.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.0 33.1 33.0 35.9 66.7 84.3 84.3 84.3 N F F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 65.0 66.0 64.0 68.0 58.0 58.0 58.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 23.0 35.0 23.0 88.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 9.2% 0.3% 4.7%