Rapid Intensification Guidance WP192022 220928 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.60 153.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 55.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 26.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 150.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.0 58.6 67.3 77.5 75.0 31.6 25.5 34.8 VU VU VU VU VU U N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 33.2 7.1 -12.4 -19.9 -22.6 -23.9 -24.1 -24.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 104.0 132.0 187.0 164.0 90.0 46.0 7.0 -10.0 F F VF VF F N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 63.0 61.0 60.0 56.0 51.0 55.0 49.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -41.0 -65.0 -88.0 -48.0 -82.0 -76.0 -50.0-181.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.46 WP192022 220928 18UTC Storm Located at : 36.60 153.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.