Rapid Intensification Guidance WP192022 220929 00UTC Storm Located at : 38.50 155.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 17.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.50 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 52.0 60.8 71.1 76.0 40.3 23.2 34.8 47.9 VU VU VU VU U N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 9.7 -8.7 -18.5 -21.7 -23.4 -24.0 -24.2 -23.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 134.0 196.0 170.0 127.0 79.0 30.0 6.0 -20.0 VF VF VF F N N U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 53.0 56.0 53.0 49.0 56.0 54.0 51.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -34.0 -17.0 -26.0-102.0 -56.0 -64.0-142.0 -95.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 18.14 WP192022 220929 00UTC Storm Located at : 38.50 155.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.