Rapid Intensification Guidance WP192022 220929 06UTC Storm Located at : 41.40 159.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 10.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.40 F TC SIZE [%] 153.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 52.6 52.6 52.6 52.6 52.6 52.6 52.6 52.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 21.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 144.0 144.0 144.0 144.0 144.0 144.0 144.0 144.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 22.20 WP192022 220929 06UTC Storm Located at : 41.40 159.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.