Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192022 220929 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     44.20    163.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    162.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        68.9  67.9  56.6  32.9  20.6  18.1  27.0  36.2 VU VU VU  U  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         -4.4  -8.2  -7.4  -8.6  -9.2  -9.3  -9.2  -9.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   175.0 138.0  84.0  88.0  32.0  13.0   0.0  23.0 VF VF  N  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  54.0  46.0  45.0  53.0  59.0  50.0  49.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  47.0  11.0 -23.0  25.0  -4.0 -27.0 -42.0 -66.0 VU  U VF VU  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 12.26

 WP192022 220929 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     44.20    163.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.