Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202022 220928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    132.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.2  15.8  20.9  26.0  39.4  39.3  43.6  31.6  F  F  N  N  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   47.0  48.0  45.0  44.0  39.0  35.0  32.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0   4.0  21.0  54.0  19.0  20.0 -37.0 -24.0  U  U  U  N  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  49.0  43.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  -6.0   2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        7.1%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       12.1%       38.4%       25.3%
 30kt / 24h        6.3%       22.4%       14.3%
 35kt / 24h        3.5%       21.2%       12.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%       20.9%       10.9%
 45kt / 36h        5.2%       34.9%       20.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.2%        8.1%
 55kt / 48h        5.1%       11.3%        8.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        7.1%        4.8%
 65kt / 72h        6.4%        8.8%        7.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 WP202022 220928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    132.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.2  15.8  20.9  26.0  39.4  39.3  43.6  31.6  U  U  N  N  F  F VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  51.0  52.0  52.0  49.0  43.0  40.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  -6.0   2.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%