Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202022 220928 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.10 131.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 83.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 74.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.5 20.4 26.6 37.8 37.8 51.5 35.0 38.4 N N N U U VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 49.0 45.0 44.0 44.0 35.0 33.0 34.0 33.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 129.3 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -7.0 16.0 52.0 39.0 24.0 -9.0 -35.0 -34.0 U U N N U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 51.0 55.0 53.0 50.0 48.0 39.0 39.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -2.0 -5.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 N N N N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.8% 9.3% 6.5% 25kt / 24h 12.8% 36.7% 24.8% 30kt / 24h 6.1% 21.8% 14.0% 35kt / 24h 4.3% 21.8% 13.1% 40kt / 24h 0.9% 20.2% 10.6% 45kt / 36h 4.4% 29.0% 16.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 12.4% 6.2% 55kt / 48h 2.2% 6.6% 4.4% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 3.6% 1.9% 65kt / 72h 2.0% 5.1% 3.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.78 WP202022 220928 12UTC Storm Located at : 23.10 131.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 116.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 18.5 20.4 26.6 37.8 37.8 51.5 35.0 38.4 N N N F F VF F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 51.0 55.0 53.0 50.0 48.0 39.0 39.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -2.0 -5.0 -2.0 0.0 -1.0 N N N N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%