Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202022 220928 18UTC Storm Located at : 23.90 131.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 31.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.4 28.3 38.7 41.4 41.4 40.7 30.7 29.6 N N U VU VU VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 43.0 45.0 46.0 47.0 38.0 34.0 23.0 20.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 114.6 110.1 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 31.0 46.0 36.0 13.0 18.0 -30.0 -34.0 -32.0 N N N U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 53.0 53.0 52.0 49.0 45.0 49.0 50.0 U U U U U VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 6.0 0.0 3.0 -13.0 -3.0 -8.0 0.0 N N N N VF N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 14.1% 11.5% 12.8% 25kt / 24h 15.6% 28.6% 22.1% 30kt / 24h 11.8% 15.2% 13.5% 35kt / 24h 10.3% 15.2% 12.7% 40kt / 24h 4.1% 15.2% 9.6% 45kt / 36h 6.3% 18.4% 12.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 6.4% 3.2% 55kt / 48h 0.5% 3.9% 2.2% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 2.0% 1.1% 65kt / 72h 0.4% 3.1% 1.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.84 WP202022 220928 18UTC Storm Located at : 23.90 131.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.4 28.3 38.7 41.4 41.4 40.7 30.7 29.6 N N F VF VF VF N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 53.0 53.0 52.0 49.0 45.0 49.0 50.0 F F F F F VF F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 6.0 0.0 3.0 -13.0 -3.0 -8.0 0.0 N N N N VU N U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%