Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202022 220929 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00    131.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  35.6  43.0  44.3  45.1  31.6  41.0  35.7  N  U VU VU VU  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  38.0  30.0  27.0  22.0  19.0  11.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.6 102.3  97.9  93.6  87.4  87.4  83.5  74.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  21.0  24.0  21.0  21.0  16.0  22.0  35.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  53.0  54.0  45.0  42.0  46.0  49.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   8.0   8.0   5.0   2.0   4.0   3.0  -2.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.0%        9.7%       14.4%
 25kt / 24h       10.7%       15.4%       13.0%
 30kt / 24h        9.4%        7.4%        8.4%
 35kt / 24h        9.1%        7.4%        8.2%
 40kt / 24h        3.6%        7.4%        5.5%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        5.9%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.06

 WP202022 220929 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00    131.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.8  35.6  43.0  44.3  45.1  31.6  41.0  35.7  N  F VF VF VF  N VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  53.0  54.0  45.0  42.0  46.0  49.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   8.0   8.0   5.0   2.0   4.0   3.0  -2.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%