Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202022 220929 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.20 134.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 27.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 15.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.8 45.3 43.3 41.9 38.2 36.6 47.6 50.5 U VU VU VU U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 35.0 36.0 36.0 27.0 13.0 6.0 2.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 89.3 73.6 63.5 56.2 56.2 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 42.0 12.0 -2.0 -4.0 28.0 -17.0 7.0 U N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 44.0 41.0 44.0 48.0 54.0 50.0 45.0 VU VU VU VU U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -17.0 0.0 -3.0 -29.0 -38.0 -81.0 -41.0 F VF N N VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 9.7% 1.8% 5.8% 25kt / 24h 3.6% 4.4% 4.0% 30kt / 24h 3.6% 2.1% 2.8% 35kt / 24h 2.9% 2.1% 2.5% 40kt / 24h 2.8% 2.1% 2.4% 45kt / 36h 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.60 WP202022 220929 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.20 134.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.8 45.3 43.3 41.9 38.2 36.6 47.6 50.5 F VF VF VF F F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 44.0 41.0 44.0 48.0 54.0 50.0 45.0 VF VF VF VF F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -17.0 0.0 -3.0 -29.0 -38.0 -81.0 -41.0 U VU N N VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 7.5% 4.1% 5.8%