Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202022 220930 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.20 135.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 38.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.10 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 45.8 43.6 45.4 38.1 32.0 35.8 33.6 47.7 VU VU VU U U U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 35.0 36.0 28.0 23.0 9.0 3.0 6.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 99.3 92.3 77.4 71.6 66.2 59.3 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 42.0 12.0 21.0 54.0 24.0 79.0 6.0 41.0 N U U N U N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 44.0 46.0 44.0 45.0 47.0 44.0 36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -20.0 -10.0 -2.0 0.0 -11.0 0.0 -20.0 -17.0 VF F N N F N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.4% 1.2% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.46 WP202022 220930 00UTC Storm Located at : 28.20 135.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 45.8 43.6 45.4 38.1 32.0 35.8 33.6 47.7 VF VF VF F N F F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 44.0 46.0 44.0 45.0 47.0 44.0 36.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -20.0 -10.0 -2.0 0.0 -11.0 0.0 -20.0 -17.0 VU U N N U N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 9.2% 4.2% 6.7%