Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202022 220930 12UTC Storm Located at : 30.20 140.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 31.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.6 38.1 42.1 48.3 56.2 64.0 51.5 43.6 VU U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 10.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.1 89.4 81.6 76.2 67.7 43.2 43.2 45.5 N N N U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 0.0 42.0 26.0 37.0 69.0 45.0 74.0 52.0 U N U N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 46.0 50.0 50.0 51.0 41.0 36.0 35.0 VU VU U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -16.0 -16.0 -15.0 -30.0 -33.0 -24.0 0.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.56 WP202022 220930 12UTC Storm Located at : 30.20 140.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 44.6 38.1 42.1 48.3 56.2 64.0 51.5 43.6 VF F VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 46.0 50.0 50.0 51.0 41.0 36.0 35.0 VF VF F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -16.0 -16.0 -15.0 -30.0 -33.0 -24.0 0.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 37.5% 1.6% 19.6%