Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202022 220930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.60    142.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.4  40.4  49.5  50.1  57.9  53.8  55.6  34.8  U  U VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         91.5  78.0  71.0  66.1  60.0  46.7  50.4  49.2  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  27.0  42.0  96.0  60.0  37.0  42.0  16.0  N  U  N  F  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  44.0  38.0  32.0  34.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0 -20.0   1.0   3.0 -16.0 -31.0 -34.0   9.0  F VF  N  N VF VF VF  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.06

 WP202022 220930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.60    142.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.