Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202022 221001 06UTC Storm Located at : 33.10 146.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 54.8 53.5 56.8 63.3 51.7 43.8 28.7 21.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 72.7 64.6 61.5 42.0 36.7 43.2 40.9 34.7 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 23.0 77.0 58.0 64.0 46.0 55.0 -1.0 -11.0 U N N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 45.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 47.0 48.0 46.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 -3.0 -5.0 -46.0 -45.0 -28.0 -13.0 -9.0 U N F VF VF VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.96 WP202022 221001 06UTC Storm Located at : 33.10 146.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.