Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202022 221001 18UTC Storm Located at : 35.40 150.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 22.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 3.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.80 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 61.4 68.4 62.7 56.3 48.5 32.0 16.3 30.2 VU VU VU VU VU U F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 55.0 33.8 27.8 32.7 35.9 35.9 30.7 19.2 U VU VU VU U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 50.0 27.0 8.0 4.0 25.0 26.0 -35.0 -26.0 N U U U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 48.0 46.0 45.0 42.0 41.0 37.0 38.0 VU U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -45.0 -49.0 -62.0 -31.0 20.0 30.0 18.0 VF VF VF VF VF VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.70 WP202022 221001 18UTC Storm Located at : 35.40 150.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.