Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202022 221002 00UTC Storm Located at : 36.30 152.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.70 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 65.5 66.1 55.4 49.9 35.8 20.4 16.3 22.4 VU VU VU VU U N F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 36.7 31.8 36.7 37.7 38.8 39.8 33.7 30.9 U VU U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 43.0 35.0 16.0 50.0 24.0 -42.0 -28.0 -25.0 N N U N U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 48.0 44.0 45.0 43.0 39.0 39.0 37.0 33.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -34.0 -29.0 -40.0 -19.0 9.0 11.0 5.0 28.0 VF VF VF VF U U N VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.12 WP202022 221002 00UTC Storm Located at : 36.30 152.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.