Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202022 221002 06UTC Storm Located at : 37.00 154.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.50 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 68.2 56.3 53.2 47.0 31.7 16.3 25.5 25.6 VU VU VU VU U F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 32.8 33.7 33.7 34.7 36.7 31.8 29.1 3.9 VU VU VU VU U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 34.0 19.0 54.0 0.0 -2.0 -49.0 -21.0 -41.0 N U N U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 41.0 33.0 33.0 38.0 41.0 42.0 54.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -37.0 -38.0 -11.0 -5.0 2.0 33.0 60.0 36.0 VF VF F F N VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.56 WP202022 221002 06UTC Storm Located at : 37.00 154.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.