Rapid Intensification Guidance WP202022 221002 12UTC Storm Located at : 37.10 156.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.70 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 63.4 64.1 52.8 36.2 20.5 15.5 28.1 31.8 VU VU VU U N F N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 32.8 26.6 26.6 26.6 30.9 34.7 12.3 -7.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 62.0 51.0 23.0 31.0 0.0 -24.0 -8.0 2.0 N N U N U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 40.0 41.0 40.0 46.0 39.0 37.0 48.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -3.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 3.0 -1.0 7.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.12 WP202022 221002 12UTC Storm Located at : 37.10 156.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.